Mortgage Market in Review

December 6, 2016
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged holding mortgage rates in check.  Trade remains volatile with large swings occurring on a regular basis.  Rates started the week lower as stocks were a little lower Monday and Tuesday mornings.  The economy grew at a 3.2% rate in Q3/2016. That data was slightly better than the 2.9% released last month.  Consumer confidence printed at 107.1 versus the expected 100 reading.

The ADP payroll report showed the economy added 216K jobs versus the expected 160K addition.  In addition, OPEC announced a production increase which caused oil prices to rise and ignited inflation concerns.  Unemployment was 4.6% versus the expected 4.9%.  Payrolls rose 178K versus the expected 180K increase. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by 1/8 of a discount point..


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		 Release
Date & Time		 Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
Preliminary Q3 Productivity Tuesday, Dec. 6,
8:30 am, et		 Up 0.2% Important.  A measure of output per hour.  Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data Tuesday, Dec. 6,
8:30 am, et		 $38B deficit Important.  Affects the value of the dollar.  A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Factory Orders Tuesday, Dec. 6,
10:00 am, et		 Up 0.3% Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Credit Wednesday, Dec. 7,
3:00 pm, et		 $20B Low importance.  A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Dec. 8,
8:30 am, et		 262K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, Dec. 9,
10:00 am, et		 94 Important.  An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Mortgage Professionals

Obtaining a mortgage is often a confusing task that can also lead to frustration.  The reason for the confusion is due to the fact that mortgage financing is complex.  The good news is that this complexity provides consumers with options and choices best suited to fit their needs.

Everyone’s financial position is unique.  Some people have large cash reserves that can be used for down payments while others want to get into a home with little or no money down.  Credit ratings vary from person to person.  In addition, future plans vary.  Some people plan on staying in their home for the rest of their lives while others only plan on staying for a few years.  These facts alone make comparing your mortgage to your neighbor’s based on rate alone a flawed endeavor, yet many people attempt to do so.  Admittedly, everyone wants a good deal.  Keep in mind that comparing rates is just one component of the entire mortgage.  Other variables include the term, down payment requirements, income qualifications, credit ratings, reserve requirements, current debt, prepaid points, and many more.

A mortgage professional is able to take all of these variables that are unique to each individual and help a person obtain the loan that best fits their situation.  The service they provide is time consuming and complex.  However, the rewards of dealing with a professional carry forward throughout a borrower’s life.  Making wise financial decisions today helps to pave the way for a safe and secure future.

Mortgage interest rates currently remain historically favorable despite some recent increases.  There is much uncertainty about the future of the economy. A cautious approach to lock decisions is wise.


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