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Mortgage Market in Review – July 18, 2016

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates.  Rates were flat the beginning of the week amid no data and some stock strength.  The global stock rally continued and rates eventually pushed higher.  The Treasury auctions were weaker than normal as the flight to quality influx of funds into U.S. debt instruments tapered off.  Producer prices rose 0.5% and the core value, which excludes the volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.4%.  The figures were expected to rise 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.  Weekly jobless claims printed at 254K and continuing claims, a summation of all receiving benefits, at 2,149K. Expectations were for claims at 265K and continuing claims at 2,124K.  Consumer prices rose 0.2% as expected.

Mortgage interest rates finished the week higher by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date & Time
Consensus
Estimate

Analysis
NAHB Housing Index Monday, July 18,
10:00 am, et
61 Moderately Important.  A measure of single family housing.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Housing Starts Tuesday, July 19,
8:30 am, et
1175K Important.  A measure of housing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, July 21,
8:30 am, et
255K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey Thursday, July 21,
8:30 am, et
3.8 Moderately important.  A survey of business conditions in the Northeast.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
FHFA House Price Index Thursday, July 21,
10:00 am, et
Up 0.7% Moderately Important.  A measure of single family house prices.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales Thursday, July 21,
10:00 am, et
5.53M Low importance.  An indication of mortgage credit demand.  Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
10-year Treasury TIPS Auction Thursday, July 21,
1:15 pm, et
None Important.  TIPS will be auctioned.  Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

House Price Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) was created on July 30, 2008, when the President signed into law the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.  The Act gave FHFA the authorities necessary to oversee vital components of our country’s secondary mortgage markets – Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks.  FHFA’s mission is to provide effective supervision, regulation and housing mission oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks to promote their safety and soundness, support housing finance and affordable housing, and support a stable and liquid mortgage market.

 

FHFA issues a monthly report on house prices called the House Price Index (HPI) that looks back 2 months in time.  The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

The housing data this week will shed light on a major component of our economy.  Signs of weakness will likely help rates stay low while any indications of strength could push rates higher in the short term.  Stay alert heading into the data.

Copyright 2016. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

 
   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-July 18th, 2016    

 

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