| Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Retail sales, an indication of the strength of the consumer, rose 0.5%. Sales excluding automobiles rose 0.4%. That data was near expectations however May’s report was revised upward. Industrial Production rose 0.6% versus the expected 0.5% increase. Capacity Utilization was 78% which was about as expected. The NAHB housing market index was 68 versus the expected 69. Housing starts were 1173K. Analysts looked for a reading of 1318K. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed report showed the economy remained strong. The Fed Beige book showed price increases in all districts. We ended the week worse by 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date & Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis |
| Existing Home Sales |
Monday, July 23,
10:00 am, et |
5.45M |
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| FHFA House Price Index |
Tuesday, July 24,
10:00 am, et |
Up 0.5% |
Moderately Important. A measure of single family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 2-year Treasury Note Auction |
Tuesday, July 24,
1:15 pm, et |
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| New Home Sales |
Wednesday, July 25,
10:00 am, et |
692K |
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| 5-year Treasury Note Auction |
Wednesday, July 25,
1:15 pm, et |
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Durable Goods Orders |
Thursday, July 26,
8:30 am, et |
Up 0.4% |
Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, July 26,
8:30 am, et |
212K |
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| 7-year Treasury Note Auction |
Thursday, July 26,
1:15 pm, et |
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Q2 GDP |
Friday, July 27,
8:30 am, et |
Up 2.2% |
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, July 27,
10:00 am, et |
97 |
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Existing Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales data near the end of each month. The data is derived from a sampling of MLS data across the nation. The release shows the current sales rate for existing single-family, coops, and condos. A national figure and four regional figures are provided. The housing market is a critical component of the US economy. A house is usually one of the largest assets a consumer owns. Housing usually leads market recoveries. The housing industry still remains in transition while some areas show strength, others languish. While the data usually isn’t a big market mover it still has the potential to result in some market volatility.
Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.
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