Mortgage Market in Review – November 30, 2015

December 1, 2015
Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly lower which pushed rates a bit higher. Most of the weakness came Monday morning as traders positioned themselves ahead of the holiday break. The data was mixed. Existing home sales were weaker than expected with a reading of 5.36M versus the expected 5.45M. Third quarter gross domestic product rose 2.1% as expected. Durable goods rose 3% versus the expected 1.5% increase which was not rate friendly. PCE Core inflation was unchanged versus an expected 0.1% increase. Personal Income rose 0.4% as expected. Spending rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.3% increase. New home sales were slightly weaker than expected at 495K. Analysts predicted sales at 500K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week unchanged to worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator		 Release
Date & Time		 Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
ISM Index Tuesday, Dec. 1,
10:00 am, et		 50.7 Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Construction Spending Tuesday, Dec. 1,
10:00 am, et		 Up 0.8% Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
ADP Employment Wednesday, Dec. 2,
8:30 am, et		 180K Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity Wednesday, Dec. 2,
8:30 am, et		 Up 1.8% Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed “Beige Book” Wednesday, Dec. 2,
2:00 pm, et		 None Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Dec. 3,
8:30 am, et		 267K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Employment Friday, Dec. 4,
8:30 am, et		 5%,
Payrolls +190K		 Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Trade Data Friday, Dec. 4,
8:30 am, et		 $43.2B deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.

ISM Index

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), releases the “Report on Business” on the first working day of each month. Part of this report is the “diffusion index,” which tracks the economy’s ups and downs fairly well.

In conducting this survey, the ISM questions purchasing executives from over 250 industrial companies compiling data on production, orders, commodity prices, inventories, vendor performance, and employment. Each of the respondents is asked to rank the categories as “up” or “down.” Various weights are applied to the individual components to form the composite index. A composite index reading of 50 can be thought of as a “swing point.” A reading above 50 implies an increase in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a decline. The ISM report is difficult for economists to forecast because there is little data upon which to base an educated guess. The report has a large “surprise factor” and can cause market swings. Be cautious heading into the release.

 


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