Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged despite some sharp swings throughout the week. Rates fell slightly the first portion of the week amid no data and a strong stock selloff. Many of the improvements were erased Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning as stocks recovered some of the earlier losses. Durable goods orders rose 0.8%. Analysts expected a 1% decrease. Weekly jobless claims were 215K, expected 214K. Continuing claims were 1.636M vs the 1.653M expected. Gross domestic product rose 3.5% versus the expected 3.3% increase. Consumer sentiment was 98.6 versus the expected 99. Stocks sold off again Friday morning. Mortgage interest rates finished the week unchanged to better by 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING AHEAD
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date & Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis |
Personal Income and Outlays |
Monday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et |
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.2% |
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
PCE Core Inflation |
Monday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et |
Up 0.1% |
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, Oct. 30,
10:00 am, et |
138.5 |
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
ADP Employment |
Wednesday, Oct. 31,
8:30 am, et |
228K |
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
Q3 Employment Cost Index |
Wednesday, Oct. 31,
8:30 am, et |
Up 0.7% |
Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, Nov. 1,
8:30 am, et |
215K |
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
Preliminary Q3 Productivity |
Thursday, Nov. 1,
8:30 am, et |
Up 2.9% |
Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
ISM Index |
Thursday, Nov. 1,
10:00 am, et |
59.9 |
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Employment |
Friday, Nov. 2,
8:30 am, et |
3.7%,
Payrolls +135K |
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Factory Orders |
Friday, Nov. 2,
10:00 am, et |
Up 2.3% |
Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
A Sure Thing
Timing is one of the most important factors in success. Unfortunately, knowing the perfect time to lock in a loan is impossible until after the fact. While analysts constantly try to predict the future, the bottom line is they continually fall short in terms of accuracy. The Fed is a prime example of this. They constantly adjust inflation expectations and rate hikes accordingly. Mortgage rates remain historically favorable and are a sure thing. Floating is risky.
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