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Mortgage Market in Review – October 30, 2018

   

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged despite some sharp swings throughout the week. Rates fell slightly the first portion of the week amid no data and a strong stock selloff. Many of the improvements were erased Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning as stocks recovered some of the earlier losses. Durable goods orders rose 0.8%. Analysts expected a 1% decrease. Weekly jobless claims were 215K, expected 214K. Continuing claims were 1.636M vs the 1.653M expected. Gross domestic product rose 3.5% versus the expected 3.3% increase. Consumer sentiment was 98.6 versus the expected 99. Stocks sold off again Friday morning. Mortgage interest rates finished the week unchanged to better by 1/8 of a discount point.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date & Time
Consensus
Estimate

Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays Monday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.2%
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation Monday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.1% Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Consumer Confidence Tuesday, Oct. 30,
10:00 am, et
138.5 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment Wednesday, Oct. 31,
8:30 am, et
228K Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Q3 Employment Cost Index Wednesday, Oct. 31,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.7% Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Nov. 1,
8:30 am, et
215K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Preliminary Q3 Productivity Thursday, Nov. 1,
8:30 am, et
Up 2.9% Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ISM Index Thursday, Nov. 1,
10:00 am, et
59.9 Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Employment Friday, Nov. 2,
8:30 am, et
3.7%,
Payrolls +135K
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory Orders Friday, Nov. 2,
10:00 am, et
Up 2.3% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

A Sure Thing

Timing is one of the most important factors in success. Unfortunately, knowing the perfect time to lock in a loan is impossible until after the fact. While analysts constantly try to predict the future, the bottom line is they continually fall short in terms of accuracy. The Fed is a prime example of this. They constantly adjust inflation expectations and rate hikes accordingly. Mortgage rates remain historically favorable and are a sure thing. Floating is risky.

 


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